Food, Energy, Economy, and Society—Will Humanity’s Tomorrow Be Better?

Food, Energy, Economy, and Society—Will Humanity’s Tomorrow Be Better?

No one is an island. As human beings, one of the things that makes us unique is our ability to examine and reflect on our own condition. To a greater or lesser extent, each of us may occasionally think about the present state and future of humanity as a whole, just as the saying goes, “Every person bears responsibility for the fate of the world.” But for most people, we often lack the imagination needed to grasp the bigger picture of humankind. We cannot truly picture the vastness of a blue planet scaled up from a globe to a 1:1 size, nor can we fully imagine the fate of the more than seven billion fellow human beings breathing alongside us at this very moment. In the same way, we cannot really sort out the rules by which this world operates: how much exactly have the Arctic icebergs melted, why must the economy keep growing, and how will technology change our destiny? The information we have about the world is becoming increasingly fragmented, while at the same time the world itself is becoming ever more complex. We are part of the world, yet perhaps we actually know almost nothing about where it is heading.

From the perspective of presenting humanity’s fate, Tomorrow is an ambitious work. Of course, the book does not and cannot describe every detail of the world we live in, but it offers an accessible yet profound introduction to the questions most people care about. Moving from specific issues to broader patterns, it helps us see the outline of the world as though the clouds had parted. That outline may not change our lives immediately—or perhaps it may change them profoundly—but at the very least it offers a window and an opportunity. If we were to spend our whole lives without understanding the true circumstances in which we exist, that would surely be a great pity.

The author of Tomorrow, Cyril Dion, is also the director of the documentary of the same name, and the book closely follows the same thread as the film. As in the documentary, we follow the author from one subject to another, exploring and learning, speaking with professionals from different fields, hoping to gain from them a fuller picture of the world. The book covers five themes that may be the most important for humanity: food, energy, the economy, society, and education. Through these different angles, it describes, analyzes, reflects on, and proposes responses to the current state of our world.

It must be said that in some respects, humanity has made greater progress since the last century than in all previous history combined. To a large extent, we have overcome the problem of scarcity in food and other basic goods, and materially we have moved from deprivation to abundance. China is a striking example: solving the problem of feeding more than a billion people and bringing electricity and communications to every corner of such a vast country are achievements almost unimaginable in known human history. For a long time, we held firmly to one belief: technology changes the world, and tomorrow will be better. Perhaps humanity really will become better in the end and achieve unprecedented accomplishments. But at present, we undeniably have to face the enormous consequences of rapid development, and how we respond to and handle today’s problems in order to sustain humanity’s progress may be something every one of us should think about—and act upon.

Each of the themes mentioned in Tomorrow is deeply tied to humanity’s fate. In terms of food, the way we have solved the problem of feeding people has relied on massive energy consumption, on technologies such as genetic engineering that may carry great uncertainties, and on lasting, irreversible damage to the soil. In some regions, sustained high crop yields are becoming harder and harder to maintain. For the more than seven billion people crowded onto this planet, any disruption to food production—whatever the cause—could bring catastrophic tragedy. In terms of energy, humanity’s reckless consumption of and dependence on fossil fuels have greatly increased instability in the environment, while also making this model of development itself extremely unstable. Developed countries, whose per capita energy use is several times or even dozens of times higher than that of many other parts of the world, should bear greater responsibility for this.

The direct cause behind these problems is economic development. In modern society, everyone is taught that the economy must grow, but very few people are told why. Why must the economy keep growing? The author’s explanation resembles modern economic theory, but in a more accessible way. Simply put, the reason the economy must grow lies in the credit-based nature of money and the existence of interest. Because money is credit-based, issuing money essentially means issuing IOUs backed by trust, and there is fundamentally no strict limit on the total amount of money. At the same time, interest requires there to be ever more credit relationships in the world. The economy can only sustain this domino structure through growth—or the appearance of growth.

The author uses a simple and memorable example in the book to explain the problem of economic growth, and it is worth sharing. Suppose the central bank issues 100 yuan, and through a commercial bank lends it to Person A—for example, as a mortgage. Because interest exists, A may eventually need to repay the bank 200 yuan. But at that moment, the extra 100 yuan needed to pay the interest does not actually exist in the world; it was never issued. Therefore, only through circulation creating more credit relationships can that missing 100 yuan come into being. For example, A spends the 100 yuan to buy a house from Developer B. B deposits the 100 yuan in the bank, and the bank then lends it to Person C. If A later earns that 100 yuan back from C through some business activity, then A now has the money needed to repay the original loan. But at the same time, more debt relationships have been created. To keep this whole system running, the economy must keep growing. If productivity growth cannot keep pace with interest rates, then apparent growth has to be maintained through asset bubbles or currency depreciation. Roughly speaking, the amount of assets in the world corresponds to the amount of debt. And once economic growth stalls, most people are unable to repay what they owe, because the money needed to repay all debts does not actually exist.

But this is clearly a road of no return. If humanity cannot achieve major scientific and technological breakthroughs and fundamentally change its condition, then this kind of growth will obviously one day come to a halt at its limits. So what can we do? For most readers, even after coming to understand a world like this, the next question will still be: “What can I do?” Indeed, as one tiny part among billions, no individual or organization can change the rules of the whole world by its own power alone. On a smaller scale, it is like small retail investors in the stock market, who feel they can only go with the flow and try to protect themselves—though even that is difficult. Faced with a world like this, most people can only be followers of the rules, or opportunists within them, rather than agents of fundamental change.

For the author of Tomorrow, however, the purpose of the book and documentary is not merely to reveal the truth about the world. More importantly, it seeks to awaken the efforts of more individuals. Through one case after another, the author shows readers that other possibilities do exist: sustainable and productive agriculture, green zero-emission energy, decentralized community economies, self-governing societies, and more meaningful forms of education. These things exist in corners of the world, even if they are drowned out by the louder voice of commerce. They still carry great significance and value. And going one step further, while each of us may indeed be just one among billions, is not the world itself made up of individuals, one by one? Even the most modest effort each person makes has meaning for the whole world. As an old saying teaches, “Do not do evil because it is small, and do not fail to do good because it seems insignificant.” Is that not also a voice present in our education?

I believe that as long as there are still many people like Cyril Dion who care about the fate of the world, and as long as each of us is willing to make even the smallest contribution, humanity’s tomorrow will surely be better.