Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories

Even without doing any research, it is obvious that far fewer people have read Records of the Three Kingdoms than Romance of the Three Kingdoms. In other words, if not for the brilliance of the latter, figures such as Cao Cao, Liu Bei, Sun Quan, and the rest of the Three Kingdoms cast might have remained nothing more than a few paragraphs in some chapter of a history textbook, rather than becoming household names for centuries. Just think about how much we know about the history of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, and the importance of Romance of the Three Kingdoms becomes clear by comparison. I suppose this is because real history, most of the time, lacks drama and therefore struggles to hold the reader’s attention, whereas only dramatized storytelling can truly sink into people’s minds. This is enough to prove how strong the public’s curiosity is: more often than not, we do not really care what the truth is, but only need to extract from it simple, understandable symbols such as good and evil, heroes and villains.

In terms of complexity, real history is far richer than any kind of script. The schemes and tactics in fiction are often highly simplified and abstracted with the audience’s ability to follow in mind, designed mainly to shape memorable characters; the probability of such things happening in real history is extremely small. The real Zhuge Liang could neither have borrowed arrows with straw boats, nor summoned the east wind, nor swaggered into an Empty Fort Strategy. Yet in drama, these near-mythical stories are precisely what sell best.

The same is true of the emergence of conspiracy theories. One can imagine that conspiracies themselves naturally exist everywhere. Any plan or tactic that cannot be known by one’s opponent appears, from that opponent’s point of view, to be a conspiracy. This is normal in any competition. But conspiracy theories are closer to the kind of dramatized storytelling mentioned earlier: in most cases, they arise to satisfy the spectators’ appetite for a good show. In real conspiracies, there are usually no clear-cut righteous and evil sides, only different parties working out the best competitive strategies for their own interests. In conspiracy theories, by contrast, characters must be reduced to fixed types, and plots must be dramatized.

Although there is only one truth, those directly involved are often unable to speak it for various reasons. In fact, the exposure of a conspiracy can lead to extremely serious consequences: Watergate is one example, and the Snowden affair is another typical case of a conspiracy being revealed. More often, because the people involved cannot speak openly, the conditions naturally arise for all kinds of conspiracy theories to flourish. Depending on the nature of the event, hearsay gets mixed together with familiar plot patterns, creating story after story, which then spreads widely through all kinds of seemingly mysterious channels. That is how conspiracy theories are formed. Among people who are not inclined to think critically, they enjoy a broad market, much like the so-called “inside information” that circulates in the stock market.

However, the existence of conspiracy theories is not entirely without positive significance. On the one hand, amid the mass of rubbish, there is indeed a small portion of conspiracies that are actually hinted at in conspiracy theories leaked in one form or another. As the saying goes, “there is no smoke without fire.” A conspiracy theory with a wide audience has at least two possible explanations. First, it may indeed contain part of the truth, circulated by anonymous insiders for their own reasons; “the people’s eyes are sharp,” and what concerns us most may in fact be the truth itself. On the other hand, the most popular view, even if it does not represent the truth, does represent the truth that the majority of people wish to be true. This has significant value for understanding the direction of public sentiment. In this sense, a certain degree of conspiracy theorizing may do more good than harm.

Recently, however, conspiracy theories have grown increasingly loud and rampant. From international affairs to the rise and fall of companies, and even to gossip in the entertainment world, every time a new story appears, someone immediately follows up with various versions of a conspiracy theory, trying to “reveal” the hidden truth behind it. This situation is certainly not normal, but if we ask why it has emerged, I think the reason may be a lack of the most basic trust.